According to an October 30, 2026 KFF analysis, the average monthly premium for Medicare Part D stand-alone prescription drug plans is projected at $51 in 2027 if current enrollees keep the same plan, up from $34 in 2026. CMS projects a rise of less than $1. Medicare open enrollment runs through December 7, 2026.
Key facts: KFF's $51 figure assumes people stay in their current stand-alone plan. CMS projects the national average rising from about $35 to $36. KFF says the real average after open enrollment will likely be lower than $51. · No zero-premium stand-alone Part D plans are available for 2027. About 4.1 million enrollees without low-income subsidies were in zero-premium plans in 2026. National plan averages range from about $6.50 to $204.50 a month. · 76% of stand-alone Part D enrollees without low-income subsidies would pay a higher premium if they make no changes; 2.4 million could see an increase of more than $50 a month if they stay put.
As of today, Friday, November 6, Medicare open enrollment is still open. A Kaiser Family Foundation analysis published October 30 puts sharp numbers on stand-alone Part D premiums for 2027 if people keep the plan they have now.
KFF projects an average monthly premium of $51 for stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDPs) next year, up from $34 in 2026 — a 50% jump if current enrollees stay put. That is not every enrollee's bill, and it is not CMS's projected national average.
Two Averages, One Shopping Season
KFF's $51 estimate assumes June 2026 enrollees remain in the same plan. CMS, on September 28, 2026, projected the average stand-alone Part D premium rising by less than $1, from about $35.09 to $36.
KFF notes CMS may be assuming people switch into lower-cost plans, and that the actual 2027 average after open enrollment will likely land below $51.
Drug coverage inside Medicare Advantage looks different in KFF's rundown: about $9 a month on average for 2027 under the stay-put method, versus $51 for stand-alone PDPs. Medicare Advantage plans can use rebate dollars to reduce Part D premiums; stand-alone PDPs cannot.
Who Faces a Higher Bill If Nothing Changes
Among PDP enrollees without Part D Low-Income Subsidies, KFF finds:
- 76% (about 10.4 million) would pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they make no changes.
- That includes about 4.1 million people in zero-premium PDPs in 2026. KFF says no zero-premium PDPs are available for 2027.
- Of those facing an increase, about 2.4 million would see their premium rise by more than $50 a month if they keep the same plan.
National PDPs' average monthly premiums for 2027 range from about $6.50 to $204.50, according to KFF. Lower-premium options still exist.
KFF also links wider room for premium jumps to the end of the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026. CMS has described that demonstration as ending on schedule.
Deductibles Moved Too
Premiums are only one line. KFF reports the standard Part D deductible rises to $700 in 2027, up from $615. The average deductible, if people keep their current plans, would be about $643 for PDP enrollees and $489 for Medicare Advantage drug plans. Nearly all PDP enrollees (99.8%) would be in a plan that charges a deductible. Most enrollees will also face coinsurance rather than flat copays for many brand drugs, and which drugs a plan covers still matters as much as the premium.
The Fine Print: The $51 average is a stay-put estimate, not a guaranteed bill. CMS's roughly $1 projected rise assumes a different mix after shopping. Auto-renewing can still cost more — or miss savings — because premiums, deductibles and drug lists can all change for 2027.
What This Means for You
This is general education, not advice:
- Open enrollment runs through December 7, 2026. Medicare.gov and CMS say changes made by that date take effect January 1, 2027.
- Compare before you renew on Medicare.gov's Plan Finder, or call 1-800-MEDICARE. Look at premium, deductible, pharmacies and your drugs together.
- Extra Help remains available for people with limited income and resources.
Questions about Medicare plan changes? Send it to us, and we may cover it in a future article.
This article is general education, not insurance, tax, legal or financial advice. Figures come from KFF and CMS and can change. Check Medicare.gov and your plan documents for your own situation.
Sources:
- KFF: Medicare Part D Premiums and Cost Sharing in 2027 (Oct. 30, 2026)
- KFF: Average Monthly Premium for Medicare Part D Stand-Alone Plans Projected to Increase 50% From $34 to $51 in 2027 Unless Enrollees Switch (Oct. 30, 2026)
- CMS: Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027 (Sept. 28, 2026)
- Medicare.gov: Open Enrollment
Frequently asked questions
When does Medicare open enrollment end for 2027 coverage?
Medicare open enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026. Changes made by December 7 take effect January 1, 2027, according to Medicare.gov and CMS.
Does the $51 average mean every Part D plan costs that much?
No. It is an enrollment-weighted average for stand-alone plans if current enrollees keep the same plan. Premiums range widely, and the average after shopping is expected to be lower than $51.
